Red & White:
An Alternate Polish Reality
By John Stafford
July 2014

In 1807, Napoleon I of France created a Polish state, the Grand Duchy of Warsaw, but upon his defeat the victorious Allies again divided Poland at the Congress of Vienna in 1815. The eastern part was ruled by the Russian Tsar while Austria and Prussia ruled the rest. Throughout this period political and cultural repression of the Polish nation led to a number of uprisings against the Russian, Prussian, and Austrian authorities.

During World War I, all the Allies agreed on the reconstitution of Poland, and U.S. President Woodrow Wilson even proposed it as one of his famous Fourteen Points. Shortly after the armistice with Germany in November 1918, Poland regained its independence. It was not uncontested as they fought a series of military conflicts, particularly the Polish–Soviet War (1919–1921). Poland inflicted a crushing defeat on the Red Army at the Battle of Warsaw, halting the advance of Communism into Europe and forcing Lenin to reconsider the achievability of global socialism.

From 1922 through 1938, Poland successfully managed to fuse the partitioned territories into a cohesive nation-state. This effort came to a close on September 1, 1939, when Nazi Germany invaded Poland, followed two weeks later by the Soviet Union’s attack. Warsaw capitulated on September 28th. As agreed in the Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact, Poland was split into two zones, the western one occupied by Nazi Germany while the eastern Kresy or Borderlands area fell under Soviet control.

The Polish Government fled Poland into exile, first in Paris, and later to London after the Germans overran France. All of the Allied governments recognized the Polish coalition government in exile. Over 200,000 troops of the Polish Armed Forces had been deported from Kresy to Soviet gulags. But two years later Churchill and Stalin formed an alliance against Hitler, and the Kresy Poles were released to form the Anders Army and marched to Persia to create the II Corps (Poland) under the British high command.

During 1943 and 1944, the Allied leaders, particularly Winston Churchill, tried to bring about talks between Stalin and the Polish Government-in-Exile. But these efforts broke down over several matters; the Katyń massacre (and others at Kalinin and Kharkiv), and Poland's postwar borders. Stalin insisted that the territories annexed by the Soviets in 1939 should remain in Soviet hands, and that Poland should be compensated with lands to be annexed from Germany. Because of this breakdown and the intransigence of the Polish leadership, the U.S. and U.K. had little leverage to reestablish an independent Poland after the war ended, leading to their acceptance of the Soviet proposals at the Yalta Conference in February 1945 and affirmation at Potsdam later that year. This acquiescence eventually led to the Soviet occupation of Poland on a permanent basis and its membership in the Warsaw Pact facing off against NATO in the Cold War.

But it might have been different.

What Might Have Been (Events/dates shown in are non-historical)

March 1944. The Polish-Government-in-Exile accepts the Curzon Line and Kresy region as a basis for the future Polish-Soviet border.

August 1944. Soviet forces drive inside Poland and parts of Romania.

17 January 1945. Soviet forces enter Warsaw.

4 – 11 February 1945. The Yalta Conference is held between “Big Three.” Each leader has an agenda: Roosevelt wants Soviet support in the Pacific, specifically invading Japan, as well as Soviet participation in the United Nations; Churchill presses for free elections and democratic governments in Eastern and Central Europe (specifically Poland); and Stalin demands a Soviet sphere of political influence in Eastern and Central Europe, an essential aspect of the USSR's national security strategy. Stalin states that "Poland must be strong" and that "the Soviet Union is interested in the creation of a mighty, free and independent Poland." Stalin promises free elections in Poland despite the Soviet-sponsored provisional government recently installed by him in Polish territories occupied by the Red Army.

30 March 1945. The Soviet Union completes the “liberation” of Poland as its forces line up on the Oder River for the final push into Germany.

12 April 1945. President Franklin Roosevelt dies, and Harry Truman takes office.

16 April 1945. Soviet troops begin their final drive on Berlin.

30 April 1945. Adolf Hitler commits suicide.

7 May 1945. Unconditional surrender of all German forces: Victory in Europe (VE) Day.

29 May 1945. Polish-Government-in-Exile returns to Warsaw.

9 June 1945. The Polish Government holds a plebiscite to confirm their right to rule despite attempts of Soviet-backed Communist activists to block or disrupt it. This government is immediately recognized by the U.S., U.K., and France, and by the Soviet Union a month later under pressure from the other Allies.

11 June 1945. The Allies divide up Germany and Berlin and take over the government.

16 July 1945. The United States conducts the first atomic bomb test.

17 July - 2 August 1945. Potsdam Conference, attended by Stalin, Churchill (who is replaced midpoint by the newly elected British Prime Minister Clement Attlee), and Harry Truman, who replaced the late President Roosevelt. They confirm Germany's eastern border is to be shifted westwards to the Oder-Neisse line, effectively reducing Germany in size by approximately 25% compared to its 1937 borders. The territories east of the new border comprising East Prussia, Silesia, West Prussia, and two thirds of Pomerania are added to Poland except the northern half of East Prussia that is kept by the Soviet Union. They also confirm the modified Curzon line (see diagram) as the eastern Polish border, ceding Lvov to the USSR.As a result, Poland's territory is reduced by 20%, or 77,500 square kilometers (29,900 sq. mi.). The shift forces the migration of millions of people as those who wish to enter or leave the new Poland and Germany are resettled. The Polish Government accepts and begins to implement these proposals.

6 August 1945. The first atomic bomb is dropped on Hiroshima, Japan.

8 August 1945. The Soviet Union declares war on Japan and invades Manchuria.

9 August 1945. The second atomic bomb is dropped on Nagasaki, Japan.

14 August 1945. The Japanese agree to unconditional surrender.

2 September 1945. The Japanese sign the surrender agreement: Victory over Japan (VJ) Day.

24 October 1945. The first session of the United Nations begins.

20 November 1945. The Nuremberg war crimes trials begin.

1946. Poor Soviet management of the German economy and food distribution, coupled with suppression of personal and political freedom leads to a growing “brain drain” of immigration to West Germany.

4 February 1946. Mátyás Rákosi becomes Communist Prime Minister of Hungary. His repressive regime begins arresting intelligentsia and shipping them to concentration camps in 1948.

9 March 1947. U.S. begins sending significant economic and military aid to Poland to balance the Soviet Union’s activities in the rest of Eastern Europe. President Truman describes the aid as promoting democracy in defense of the "free world," a principle that becomes known as the Truman Doctrine.

March 1946 – September 1949. The Greek Civil War breaks out between Anglo-American-supported royalist forces and Soviet-aligned communist forces. Royalist forces emerge as the victors, and the U.S. launches a massive program of military and economic aid to Greece.

5 March 1946. In a speech at Westminster College in Fulton, Missouri, Winston Churchill says "a shadow" had fallen over Europe. He described Stalin as having dropped an "Iron Curtain" between East and West, though he highlights the “brave Polish people struggling to maintain their independence behind that curtain.”

12 March 1947. The United States begins sending massive aid to Turkey arising from a fear that the Soviet Union might suborn the country and break through the NATO defense line to the oil-rich Middle East - another example of President Truman’s promotion of democracy and the Truman Doctrine.

February 1948. The Soviets back a Czechoslovak communist coup d'état. Protests are again voiced in the United Nations but action vetoed by the Soviet Union.

25 March 1948 – 12 May 1949. The Soviets issue orders restricting Western military and passenger traffic between the American, British and French occupation zones and Berlin (known as the Berlin Blockade). The Americans continue to supply their forces by military train until the trains are halted, then by air.

April 1948. Opening of the Marshall Plan (officially the European Recovery Program), a large-scale American program to aid Europe to rebuild their economies, remove trade barriers, modernize industry, and prevent the spread of Soviet communism in the West. While the USSR and its satellite Eastern Bloc countries decline and later form their own economic union, Poland accepts it as an expansion of the previous aid, and begins rebuilding its industry in earnest. Defense expenditures rise with it, strengthening the Polish military.

31 December 1948. The first MiG-15 jet fighter takes flight. The aircraft enters the force in numbers in 1949.

8 January 1949. The USSR and its allies form the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECON).

4 April 1949. NATO treaty signed.

29 August 1949. The Soviet Union explodes its first atomic bomb, RDS-1.

7 September 1949. Communist agitators organize strikes which end in street fighting with Polish workers eventually broken up by police. The Soviet Union warns Poland that it must not inhibit the free will of the people to accept Communism. The Polish government is openly anti-Communist.

1950. The USSR establishes 46 Soviet Special Forces (Spetsnaz) companies.

19 February 1950. Czechoslovakian border guards seize a Polish cargo train at the border, alleging it carries supplies for anti-Communist rebels. The Polish government objects but the Czechoslovakian government ignores the demands and the Soviet Union blocks action in the UN.

25 June 1950. The Korean War begins, fought over Korean unification with North Korea aided by the People’s Republic of China, and South Korea by the United States (and some allies).

3 July 1950. A flight of Soviet IL-10 attack planes enters Polish airspace and encounters four Polish P-51 fighters. The Poles allege the Soviet aircraft refused to turn back when warned, and fired first. The Soviets claim the intrusion was unintentional and the Poles fired without warning. Result: one Storm Bird shot down, one damaged but returned. Again, both countries file grievances in the UN but resolutions are vetoed by the US and USSR.

7 October 1950. Poland joins NATO. The USSR, East Germany, and Czechoslovakia react with propaganda campaigns and threaten counter action.

8 February 1951. Three leading Polish Communist Party members found shot dead. The Soviets blame the Polish government and threaten retaliation if further anti-Communist provocations occur.

10 April 1951. Hungarian workers take to the streets in Anti-Communist march in solidarity with Poland. Turnout is limited and Soviet military and Hungarian police units disperse the crowd by the end of the day using mostly non-lethal means. A strong police/military presence remains visible for weeks.

14 May 1951. Czechoslovakian police and military units move to seize “anti-government” (news sources claim them to be anti-communist) agitators and revolutionaries. Over 900 people are jailed, and 12 shot during arrests.

2 June 1951. International news agencies report that East German police and Soviet military units have arrested at least “anti-government terrorists” over the past week. The East German government denies the reports and the USSR posts several counter-reports extolling the happiness of workers in the “liberated” countries of Eastern Europe.

22 August 1951. Communist Party headquarters in Warsaw is firebombed, killing two. The Polish government declares it arson and “suspicious,” but the Soviets blame the Polish government again.

24 September 1951. The USSR tests a second atomic bomb.

27 September 1951. Stalin authorizes selective activation and forward movement of combat units in East Germany, Czechoslovakia, and the Soviet Union for a preemptive attack to occupy Poland to “protect fellow Communists who are being persecuted and killed for their political beliefs.” Military exercises are quickly planned and announced to mask the activity but the Poles and their U.S./British allies are not fooled, and begin to also increase readiness.

7 October 1951. U.S. and Polish intelligence detect signs of an impending attack. The British are in the middle of elections (on the 26th Churchill defeats Attlee) and Attlee waives it off, but Truman directs military leaders to take defensive action. Unfortunately, the force levels in Europe are dangerously low and the units at a poor state of readiness. Some transfer of forces from Korea is set in motion. Polish reserves are mobilized and moved to defensive stations. American forces begin redeployment to Britain in anticipation of an amphibious reinforcement of Poland, while other Allied forces plan diversionary moves against Soviet forces in East Germany and Czechoslovakia.

11 October 1951. Soviet Spetsnaz forces infiltrate the Polish border moving toward key transportation nodes to isolate Poland further.

13 October 1951. At 0300 hours, Soviet ground forces begin their attack along four avenues into Poland, while all other forces in Europe and Asia stand at alert. The first wave is preceded by a massive artillery and air attack along the axes of advance. Those axes are: southwest along the coast to capture the port of Gdansk to block maritime reinforcement, limited drives northeast from Czechoslovakia toward Wroclaw and Krakow, and west toward Warsaw. Poland invokes the NATO Treaty of Defense.

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