Great Pacific War Replay
1939 Campaign Scenario
Part IV: Spring, 1941
By Doug McNair
January 2008

World War II in the Pacific earnestly begins in today’s episode of my Great Pacific War 1939 Campaign Scenario replay. As 1940 came to a close, only Japan and China were at war with each other. But US oil and steel embargoes had driven Japan’s war with the United States level up to 7, and Japan’s use of HQ Offensive impulse chits in China had driven the US Entry Level up to 9. Further provocative moves included America’s deployment of a carrier battle group to Manila, along with several other US units reinforcing the Philippine army. All this while Japan’s near destruction of all Kuomintang armies in Southern China will let her start redeploying units to where they can attack the Western powers (once a defensive line against Mao’s armies is established).

The other boot is about to drop….

TURN 7 – SPRING, 1941
Production Segment: A Dutch 2 SURF unit arrives in Batavia (at no BRP cost to the Netherlands), and then all major powers receive force pool additions, with the largest influx of buildable units going to the United States and Britain (another factor forcing Japan’s hand). The Soviet Union’s BRP base increases to 20 now that the US Entry Level has passed the 7 mark, and Communist China receives 14 BRP for control of provinces and provincial capitals (Mao has managed to hold onto all his provinces, despite Japanese advances). But Nationalist China has been eviscerated, losing control of Hunan, Kwangtung, Kweichow AND Yunnan Provinces, all in 1940. She receives only 11 BRPs for control of Szechuan and Sikang provinces and their capitals. The Netherlands’ BRP base goes up to 10, due to increased production for the war in Europe, but she must send 6 BRPs to Europe since she’s not yet in the war in the Pacific; so she gets only 4 BRPs total. Britain doesn’t make her required minimum deployment in Australia because she moved her only TAC unit there out to the Solomon Islands to guard against what looked like an imminent Japanese attack on Rabaul. She also doesn’t get any BRPs from French Indochina since it has been conquered by Japan, so her take is only 44 BRPs (down 10 from last year). The USA’s BRP Base is now 120 at her entry level of 9, and after adding on BRPs for the Philippines, Hawaii and off-map territories, and her total take is 141. Finally, Japan’s total take is 143 (after economic growth and additional BRPs for conquests in China and Indochina) minus 45 for having drawn three US Embargo chits thus far, equaling 98.

The Kuomintang spend 8 BRPs to build 3 INF units in two of the three cities they still control, and Mao spends 6 BRPs to build 2 x 2-2 INF. The Soviet Union has to build more units to make her required minimum deployments next spring, so she builds 2 x 3-3 INF and a 2-4 TAC for 12 BRPs (taking advantage of the Waves of Humanity rule). That leaves her with only 8 BRPs, so Mao will have fewer Soviet BRPs to count on this year. Britain has to be thrifty for now, due to her lowered BRP take this year, and buys a 3-4 Indian INF plus a 2-5 British ARM division for 9 BRPs. Japan spends 10 BRPs for 2 x 2-3 INF and 2 x 1-3 INF (the latter are intended as occupation troops for China). Finally, the US buys 9 SURF (available winter, 1941), a 3-4 INF, a 2-6 ARM division, and a 1-4 MAR division for 48 BRPs. She’s holding back a bit, because she wants to have more BRPs than Japan in her stockpile during the Declaration of War segment, thus forcing Japan to declare war on her (or not) first.

No new political chits go in the cup, and the chit drawn is IMPERIAL EDICT. Since Japan is not yet at war with any major power, there is no effect (and Japan breathes a sigh of relief that it wasn’t another US EMBARGO chit…).

Everyone buys as many Impulse chits as they can before war breaks out (two for Japan, one for everyone else).

Sea Zone Box Placement Segment: The Netherlands spends 1 BRP to put a 1-4 TAC unit in the Sea Control box of the Java Sea, but keeps the rest of her units home due to her and Britain’s low BRP stockpiles. Britain spends 5 BRPs and puts TAC and CV units in Sea Control boxes, but keeps her SUBs at home for the moment. Japan spends 5 BRPs and puts TAC units in the South China Sea and the Gulf of Siam, a 9 SURF in the Marshall Islands Sea Control box and 7 SUB in the Hawaiian Islands Sea Control box (to torpedo any naval units that try to move out of Pearl or Hilo during the Operations Segment). The US can’t place units in Sea Zone boxes while still at peace, so Hawaiian waters are left crawling with Japanese subs. But next comes Raiding box placement, and Britain sends all her SUBs to the East China Sea Raiding box. That means if Japan declares war on Britain, it’s open season on Japanese BRPs.

Declaration of War Segment: Going in Order of Play (whoever has the lowest current BRP stockpile declares first), Britain does not declare war, but Japan (who cannot afford to have another US Embargo chit drawn) declares war on the USA for 15 BRPs plus an extra 5 BRPs for a Surprise Attack. She does not declare war on Britain (which can spend its own BRPs for that, thank you very much). All US Embargo chits come out of the cup as the Japanese economy shifts to a war footing, but the US economy does the same and America’s BRP base gets a 20 point bump (to be collected in the Spring). All Entry Level markers for both the US and Japan are discarded, and they can declare war freely on whomever they wish from now on.

Sea Control and Raiding Segment: The US couldn’t place any units in Sea Zone boxes before going to war, so no Sea Zones are contested; the Brits can’t raid in the South China Sea, because they didn’t go to war with Japan.

Strategic Redeployment Segment: The Kuomintang SR a 2-2 INF to the north bank of the Yangtse next to Chunking, but Mao can’t SR anyone to any useful location due to Japanese armies and mountains in the way. The Netherlands keeps her units in place, but Britain SRs her new 3-4 Indian INF from Calcutta to the objective capital city of Taralam on Borneo to reinforce the Dutch there. She can’t SR her new HQ and ARM unit from the Britain box yet, because her route through the Mediterranean is now blocked by Axis forces (and will be until Summer, 1943). She’ll have to either send her 9 SURF unit to the Middle East box to SR units around the horn from Britain, or build a new 9 SURF in Britain to do the same. Japan SRs her 5-8 SAC unit from Kagoshima on Japan to Takao on Taiwan, and she SRs a 5-4 TAC from Kweilin in China to Amoy on the South Chinese coast just north of Taiwan. She SRs her two, new 1-3 INF units from Japan to the beachhead on the South China coast and SRs the Japanese 3-5 ARM unit from Yunnan Province through the South China coast beachhead to Takao on Taiwan (the 9 SURF unit that SR-ed it goes along with it). Finally, she SRs a 2-3 INF unit from the Soviet border with Manchukuo to Takeo on Taiwan. The US starts by sending 4 BRPs to Nationalist China (2 get through) and then SRs a 2 SUB, a 3-4 TAC and a 2-6 ARM division (the latter from the US West Coast box) to Legaspi on the coast of the Philippines Sea. She also SRs a 5-4 TAC from the West Coast Box to Hilo and a 1-0 GAR from the West Coast box to Johnston Island. Japan will need to work fast to take control of the sea areas surrounding the Philippines and keep the US from SR-ing in any more troops.

Operations Segment: The first chit drawn is…

JAPANESE KWAN HQ OFFENSIVE: Japanese armies surge northward and form the Yangtse River Containment Line, while the airborne division at Kweilin moves down to Amoy on the South Chinese coast. The remaining armies in China attack the Kuomintang holdouts southeast of Kweilin. The 11 die to 4 line attack against the last Kuomintang 2-2 INF units south of the Yangtse smashes through the demoralized Nationalists, scoring an amazing 5 hits on 11 dice and destroying the two INF units, who score some final blows for the Nationalist cause with two hits on 4 dice, killing a Japanese 1-3 INF division and a 1-5 ARM division. But with just a Kuomintang 1-0 GAR south of the Yangtse, Southern China is now wholly Japanese-dominated with nothing standing between the Emperor’s armies and Hong Kong (except a declaration of war on Britain).

The next chit drawn is…

JAPANESE NAVAL: Spending the extra 5 BRPs for the surprise attack wasn’t necessary as the Japanese get the jump on everyone. Every Japanese carrier on the board goes on the attack with 14 CV each attacking Manila and Pearl Harbor. An American 2-4 TAC plus the 4 CV at Manila scramble their planes to intercept, and in the 14 die to 6 air battle, each side kills just one enemy BRP (due to downed carrier planes). But the Japanese were saving all their good rolls for the attack on the ships and score 5 hits on 13 dice (after subtracting one die due to the air battle hit), killing all 4 CV factors at Manila plus 1 SURF.

The 4 CV units move back to Saigon, Takeo and Shanghai, but the 2 CV unit continues on to Truk, which is on the border of three different Southern Pacific Sea Zones; a great base from which to block American SR to the Philippines using only minimal forces.

Then the attack on Pearl Harbor goes in, and the Americans are able to scramble a 2-4 TAC plus 4 CV (they depleted Pearl Harbor’s defenses by SR-ing a 3-4 TAC to the Philippines before the Japanese could close the sea lanes there). In the 14 die to 6 air battle, the Americans do far better than the Japanese, with both sides scoring 2 hits and killing 2 enemy BRPs due to downed carrier planes. But that leaves 12 Japanese CV factors to attack the Pearl Harbor fleet, and they exact a terrible toll, scoring 5 hits and wiping out all 4 CV factors at Pearl, plus one LC factor (which is less valuable than the SURF it could have killed, but which makes any American attempt to fortify Wake Island extremely dicey given the 7 SUB factors prowling Hawaiian waters).

8 CV return to Tokyo and Yokohama, 2 CV relocate to the port of Otamati on the Sea of Okhotsk and 4 CV return to the Marshall Islands.

A fleet train and a 9 SURF unit move from Shanghai down to Truk, 5 SUB move from Taihoku on Taiwan to the Marshall Islands (taking the two minor ports there up to their maximum SUB capacity of 12), and then the Shanghai invasion force moves southwest and lands at the town of Vigan on the North Coast of Luzon in the Philippines. 1 LC is lost in the landing. The landing forces can’t move beyond the unopposed beachhead, because it’s not a General Offensive impulse.

The next chit drawn is…

NATIONALIST CHINA ATTRITION: The four existing Kuomingtang INF units form a line on the north bank of the Yangtse, hoping to hold their ground long enough for their new American allies (who are officially allied to them now due to their entry into the war) to send them enough BRPs to rebuild their army.

The next chit drawn is…

BRITISH ATTRITION: The Brits bought this chit because they expected invasion, but since that hasn’t happened they hold position.

The next chit drawn is…

COMMUNIST CHINA ATTRITION: Mao reinforces his defensive lines as best he can and then attacks the weakest point of the Japanese line, a lone 1-3 INF division on the south bank of the Yangste. A 2-2 Chinese army attacks with 2 x 1-4 TAC in support, and since the division is all alone, Chinese dice hit it on a 5 or 6. Mao’s armies roll extremely well and score 3 hits to destroy the division and advance across the river, but the division (which gets a +1 strength bonus due to defending against units across a river) scores one hit in return and kills a Communist Chinese BRP.

The last chit drawn is…

US NAVAL: The Americans have no carriers left on the Pacific map with which to perform any naval strikes, and all TAC aircraft that are in range of the Japanese beachhead on Luzon have already activated in the fight against the Japanese naval strike on Manila. The 5 SURF at Manila stays in place so it can enter the Sea Control box of either the South China or Sulu Sea next turn. Then the US says “damn the torpedoes” and takes its remaining 1 LC unit out of Pearl Harbor on a desperate run to fortify Wake Island before the Japanese can invade it next turn. The Japanese 7 SUB waiting off Pearl Harbor do battle with the 9 SURF escorting the LC, and the SUBs score one hit and sink the LC along with the MAR unit it’s carrying while the SURFs score no hits against the Japanese subs. The SURFs return to base at Pearl, and Wake Island is open to Japanese invasion next turn.

Supply and End Segments: All units are in supply, and the Japanese player voluntarily removes the Airfield Counter he built on the South China coast during the invasion there in 1939. All units in sea zone boxes return to port, and the turn ends.

So, Pearl Harbor came early this year and American carrier strength on the Pacific map is now down to just 4 CV at Hilo. But there are another 6 CV waiting in the US West Coast box plus another 4 CV that will become available in the fall. Japan has landed on Luzon and has ships positioned to take control of a line of Sea Zones between the US West Coast box and the Philippines to cut the SR routes between them; the Americans on the Philippines may now get no help from home for a while. But the Americans have been able to move a powerful force there, so Japan will need to commit serious forces to take the islands. That effort could be seriously hampered if Britain declares war on Japan. She’s got the BRPs to do it and will be eligible to receive substantial BRP transfers from the USA once she’s in the war. Mao isn’t behaving himself either, having broken the Yangste River defense line with more BRPs available to build units and send them through the breach.

Can Japan hold the line against the Americans, the British and Communist China to take the Philippines and then strike South? Tune in next time and find out!

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