GPW Replay: 1939 Campaign Scenario
Part 1: Fall and Winter 1939
By Doug McNair
January 2008

Now that the Christmas rush is over, I actually have a chance to do a little gaming, so what better way to start the new year than to run a game I spent much of last year developing: the 3rd Edition of Great Pacific War. The Masters already have spoken on many aspects GPW strategy in our Third Reich/Great Pacific War Players Guide, and they will hand down even more knowledge in our upcoming Rumors of War book supplement. So rather give a strategic disquisition here, I’ll opt to dive right into the replay and inject my own insights as play progresses.

COMMUNIST AND NATIONALIST CHINESE SETUP: Mao’s well-led armies form a strong line on the west bank of a river, running from the north edge of the board down to Hopei Province. But the Kuomintang have no defensible terrain to work with in Hunan and Kwangsi Provinces, and nowhere near enough armies to cover the entire front with the Japanese plus the southern Chinese coast (which is vulnerable to amphibious invasion). So, they opt to consolidate their forces as best they can by sacrificing much of Kiangsi and Kwangsi provinces and establishing a defensive line that runs north-south just east of Kweilin and then turns southwest and runs down to the coast west of Canton.

SOVIET SETUP: Since they’re at peace and likely to play the role of “an army in being” for most of the game (with war brewing in Europe, Stalin won’t commit enough BRPs in Asia to take on the Japanese until 1945), the Red Army deploys in defensive positions around the objective cities of Vladivostok and Blagoveschensk, with an HQ positioned between those forces and a lone 1-3 army guarding the Soviet shipyards at Nikolaevsk.

BRITISH SETUP: The Brits have little choice about where to set up, since their Empire stretches from India to Australia and they’ve got troops stationed all over the place. So their forces begin the game thinly spread, but since Britain starts the game at peace she’s (hopefully) got time for force buildup in key areas before hostilities begin.

UNITED STATES AND PHILIPPINES SETUP: Most on-board U.S. forces begin play in Hawaii. One Filipino unit plus a small number of U.S. units start in the Philippines, but until the U.S. Pacific Entry Level increases significantly only a few more U.S. units will be able to redeploy there. More U.S. units start in the U.S. West Coast Box on the off-board movement card.

JAPANESE SETUP: The unfortunate fact for Japan is that at game-start half of her army is bogged down in China, and if she doesn’t commit more forces there she’ll be doomed to a long stalemate that will sap war efforts elsewhere. So, Japan deploys a powerful force at Canton, on the south flank of the Nationalist Chinese army. She also places her one at-start HQ two hexes northeast of Hong Kong, where it can activate the Japanese line to the west and bring them in to assist the attack on the Kuomintang. She then deploys army and marine troops plus landing craft, SURF and Fleet Train units in Darien, plus more in Shanghai. These will be able to launch amphibious landings on the south Chinese coast and hopefully turn the Kuomintang flank so the remaining Japanese forces can drive north and capture the objective cities of Kweilin and Chungking. Until that happens she’ll have to plan on building new armies to invade and establish the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere.

Turn 1: Fall 1939

Production Segment: The Netherlands builds a 1-3 INF unit at the objective city of Taralam in Borneo for 2 BRPs, Communist China builds two 1-2 armies for 4 BRPs, Nationalist China builds two 2-2 armies for 4 BRPs, the Soviets build two 2-3 armies and a 1-3 army for 5 BRPs (taking advantage of the special rule that lets them build INF units for less), Britain builds a 1-3 French Colonial INF at Hanoi, and would like to build a 9 SURF in Britain to help redeploy her forces to vulnerable colonies nearer Japan. But that would leave her with few BRPs to build the armies she needs for her minimum deployments in India, Burma and Austrialia (so she can receive the full BRP production of those areas). So instead she builds a 3-4 and a 2-3 Indian INF in India, a 1-4 TAC in Australia and a 4 SURF in Britain (available in Summer 1940) for a total of 28 BRPs. The U.S. builds the remaining Filipino 1-3 INF and 1-4 TAC and places them at Davao, builds a 2 LC unit at Pearl Harbor, and then builds a 3-4 INF, 3 x 1-0 GAR, a 2 LC unit and a 4 CV (available Summer 1940) in the U.S. West Coast box, for a total of 37 BRPs. Finally Japan builds 3 x 3-3 INF, a 3-5 ARM, a 1-3 PARA division, a 2-4 TAC, a 1-0 GAR, 3 x 1 LC and a 4 CV unit (available Summer 1940) all for 55 BRPs.

The Soviet player draws a NO EFFECT political chit and nothing of import happens, and then Japan purchases the two impulse chits she’s allowed to buy before going to war with any major power while everyone else except Britain and the Soviet Union purchase the one impulse chit each that they’re allowed before going to war with a major power. The Soviets purchase none since Japan won’t be able to declare war on them until the Japanese War with the Soviet Union status rises to at least 5. Britain purchases none because she pretty much needs to keep her units in place to fulfill minimum deployment requirements.

Sea Zone Box Placement Segment: The Soviet Union does not place any units in sea zone boxes, but Britain spends 5 BRPs and sends British and French air and SURF units out to Sea Control boxes in the Coral Sea, the South China Sea, the Gulf of Siam, the Straits of Malacca and the Bay of Bengal. The United States cannot place any units in on-map sea control boxes while neutral, and Japan opts not to place any units in sea zone boxes (signaling that she’s unlikely to declare war on anyone new this turn).

Declaration of War Segment and Sea Control and Raiding Segments: Japan doesn’t declare war on anyone and everyone else returns the favor, and no sea control combat or raiding occurs.

Strategic Redeployment Segment: The Netherlands, the Chinese and the Soviet Union all keep their units in place (to see what Japan will do), and Britain doesn’t have the naval capacity in-theater yet to redeploy land units overseas. But the United States can perform up to two SRs at her current Pacific entry level of 3, so she SRs a reduced INF unit (2-3 strength) from Hawaii to Manila in the Philippines. Then Japan SRs land, sea and air units westward to the Chinese theatre. The Soviet Union and the US both transfer two BRPs to their Chinese allies (only one of which gets to its destination per the rules).

Operations Segment: The first chit drawn is …

JAPANESE KWAN OFFENSIVE: The Japanese HQ northwest of Hong Kong activates, all units of the line to the east that are within 4 hexes of the HQ advance westward, and then the strong force north of Hong Kong attacks the Kuomintang’s south flank. They launch a 16-die to 5 line attack against two INF and a GAR unit, but they score only two hits, which wipes out a 1-2 INF unit and kills a Kuomintang BRP. The Chinese score no hits in return. Since the Japanese attacked Chinese units the Japanese player has to roll a die to see if another US Embargo chit goes in the political cup. He rolls a 4, and it does (a 5 or more would have meant no chit went in the cup). The Japanese use of a chit other than Attrition or Naval in China inflames US public opinion and raises the U.S. Entry Pacific level by one to 4.

The next chit drawn is …

JAPANESE NAVAL: A 9 SURF transports a Japanese 3-3 INF to the Marshal Islands, and the invasion fleet from Darien mounts an amphibious landing on China’s border with French Indo-China. Japan isn’t at war with France so the French subs in the South China Sea can’t attack the invasion force, and the 17 die amphibious assault scores just one hit, which is just enough to eliminate the 1-2 INF that was guarding the beaches (it inflicts no hits in return). The Japanese establish a beachhead in the hex but cannot move beyond it since there’s a Kuomintang unit in an adjacent hex. Once again the Japanese player must roll to see if the U.S. tightens the embargo, but he rolls a 6 and they don’t.

The next chit drawn is …

U.S. NAVAL: American landing craft from Pearl Harbor transport a GAR unit to Midway Island and establish a beachhead there, and then the LCs return to Pearl while a 9 SURF and a 2 CV take up station at Midway.

The next chit drawn is …

COMMUNIST CHINA ATTRITION: Mao’s newly built units move forward to reinforce the line, but the rest stay in place to see how the Kuomintang deal with the Japanese flank attack to the south.

The last chit is …

NATIONALIST CHINA ATTRITION: The Kuomintang pull back from the coast and move their new armies southwest to block the Japanese landing.

Supply Segment: All units are in supply, and the British and Americans spend BRPs to repair the INF units that started the game at reduced strength.

Nobody surrenders, so units in sea zone boxes return to port.

Play proceeds to …

Turn 2: Winter 1939

Production Segment: The Soviet player rolls an 8 on the Russian Winter Table, which means that all units that start the turn in the Soviet Union will be slowed. The Dutch build no units while the Communist Chinese build one 2-2 INF unit and the Nationalists build two 1-2 INFs. The Soviets stand pat, and the Brits build a 2 SUB unit in the Britain box, which they will try to SR onto the map this turn (4 BRPs). The Americans build 2 TAC factors in the US West Cost box for 6 BRPs. Finally the Japanese build another HQ and a 1-5 ARM division plus a 4 CV (available Fall 1940) and another 3 LCs for 33 BRPs.

Another NO EFFECT chit goes in the political cup, but the chit drawn is U.S. OIL EMBARGO. Japan loses 10 BRPs immediately and will lose another 10 BRPs in the Spring production segment. The Japanese War with United States entry level goes up by one to 4 (still not quite enough to declare war on the U.S.).

Players buy the same number of chits as last turn.

Sea Zone Box Placement Segment: Britain once again spends 5 BRPs to put units in the same sea control boxes, and this time Japan also spends 5 BRPs to put 4 CV and a 2-4 TAC in the South China Sea box.

Declaration of War Segment: Because of the embargo chit Japan doesn’t have enough BRPs left to declare war on anybody, and doing that would just inflame U.S. public opinion and raise the U.S. Entry Level another notch, which would give the U.S. more BRPs next year and also let them SR more BRPs each turn to the Kuomintang. So Japan remains at limited war with China only, and nobody else declares war either.

Sea Control and Raiding Segment: No sea conflict.

Strategic Redeployment Segment: Japan SRs a GAR unit northwest from Peiping to anchor the flank of the Japanese lines facing Mao’s armies. The Nationalist and Communist Chinese each SR one unit to the front, and the U.S. SRs a 1-0 GAR unit to Dutch Harbor in the Aleutians along with the 9 SURF unit transporting it. The U.S. also sends 2 BRPs to Nationalist China (one gets through). The Soviets SR four BRPs to Communist China (two get through), and Britain’s newly built 2 SUB unit SRs from Britain through the Suez Canal to Colombo on Ceylon.

Operations Segment: The first chit drawn is …

U.S. NAVAL: The United States purchased the Naval chit in case Japan declared war so that she could sealift forces forward to the Philippines and Wake Island. But since that didn’t happen and the number of forces on the Philippines is at the maximum for U.S. entry level 4, the U.S. player’s forces stay put.

The next chit drawn is …

NATIONALIST CHINA ATTRITION: Kuomintang lines advance, and the Nationalist Chinese attack the Japanese beachhead on the Indochinese border at 6 dice to 4. The attack scores no hits, but the Japanese score 2 hits on 4 dice and kill two Kuomintang 1-2 INF units.

The next chit drawn is …

JAPANESE NAVAL: Two Japanese LC units transport an INF and an ARM unit from Kagoshima and establish a second beachhead right next to the existing beachhead on the South China coast. Other naval units make minor redeployments.

The next chit drawn is …

JAPANESE ATTRITION: Japan couldn’t use an HQ Offensive chit this turn in China because that would raise the U.S. Entry level by one. So she went with an Attrition chit instead, and uses it to move the bulk of her forces in southern China west along the coast to mass for a Spring offensive against the Kuomintang’s south flank, thinning out the left-center portion of her line considerably. She also moves the KWAN HQ southwest so it can activate the entire Japanese southern front next turn. Then, after making several offerings to the gods, many Japanese INF units plus a 5-4 TAC out of Canton attack the 1-0 GAR holding the exposed point of the Kuomintang lines in the mountains northwest of Canton. With the GAR at double strength it will take four hits to eliminate it, but the gods smile and the Japanese score 5 hits on 16 dice to wipe out the GAR and seize the mountains. The GAR scores one hit before dying and takes out a Japanese INF division. There is now a breach in the Kuomintang lines and an open road to the objective capital city of Kweilin. But karma is inexorable, and the Japanese roll a 1 and another U.S. Embargo chit goes in the political cup.

The last chit drawn is …

COMMUNIST CHINA ATTRITION: Mao’s southern armies press forward and attack the Japanese in the provincial capital at Hankow, but neither side scores any hits.

Supply Segment and End Segment: All units are in supply, none are in need of repair and nobody surrenders, and all naval units return to port.

So at the end of 1939, the Kuomintang’s southern lines are starting to buckle and the Japanese armies on the southern coast are now reinforced with armor and airborne troops and braced for an all-out offensive. If they gain the initiative next turn they’ll stand a very good chance of destroying or cutting off the entire Kuomintang right flank and then driving north to capture the objective city and provincial capital of Kweilin. That will leave the Nationalists no choice but to retreat northward and form new lines around Kweiyang or even Chunking, depending on how far the Japanese push northward. If that happens then Japan can consolidate her gains in southern China and leave a containment force there to keep the Chinese armies in check, then take the rest of her forces and march southwest into Burma and French Indo-China. And since Japan’s actions didn’t rile the Americans enough to increase the U.S. Entry level significantly, there won’t be a serious threat of U.S. attacks next year even if they do declare war, because the U.S. BRP base won’t grow until 1941. Japan will also need to use her substantial carrier force to knock out the British and Dutch navies and air forces so she can grab as many of their colonies as possible before she has to give back most of her landing craft to keep the Japanese civilian economy going.

Can Japan score a victory in China and deal a body blow to the Western colonial powers before the U.S. enters the war? Tune in next time and find out!

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