Great Pacific War Replay
1939 Campaign Scenario
Part II: Spring and Summer, 1940
By Doug McNair
January 2008

The armies of Japan try to knock-out the Nationalist Chinese in today’s episode of my Great Pacific War replay. As 1939 drew to a close, the Western powers and the Soviet Union were all still at peace but slowly building-up their forces in the Pacific. Mao’s Chinese Communist armies were holding their own against the Japanese in the north, but the Kuomintang were in an increasingly precarious position in the south as Japanese armies massed for a spring offensive. US entry status is at only 4 (very hard to declare war), and US oil and steel embargoes haven’t slowed Japan down yet…but all of that will likely change in 1940.

The war in the Pacific continues…

TURN 3 – SPRING, 1940:
Production Segment: Britain receives additional units in her force pool and receives 53 BRPs (she hasn’t gained or lost any territory, but she’s short of her required minimum deployment in Malaya). The Netherlands receives 4 BRPs (her BRP base doesn’t increase until next turn), the USA receives 61 (BRP base doesn’t increase until the US Entry Level increases to at least 5), the Soviet Union receives 15 BRPs, Communist China receives 14 BRPs (her original BRP base of 11 plus 3 for controlling three Chinese provincial capitals), Nationalist China receives 20 BRPs (her original base of 15 plus 5 for controlling five provincial capitals), and Japan receives 118 BRPs (her base of 116 plus 8 for territorial gains and control of capitals in China, plus 4 for her minor ally Siam, minus 10 because of the US Embargo chit drawn last year).

The Netherlands builds no units, but Communist China builds 2 x1-4 TAC and a 2-2 INF unit for 9 BRPs. The Soviet Union saves her BRPs for transfer to Mao, but Nationalist China builds a 2-2 INF, 2 x 1-2 INF, 2 x 1-4 TAC and a 1-0 GAR for 15 BRPs and hopes the US Entry Level goes up soon so the Americans can send lots more BRPs. Britain builds a 3-4 ANZAC INF unit in Melbourne and an HQ unit plus 2 x 1-0 GAR and a 2 CV (available Winter, 1940) in the Britain box for a total of 21 BRPs. The USA builds an HQ unit, a 3-4 TAC and a 4 CV (available Winter, 1940) in the US West Coast Box for 30 BRPs. Finally, Japan builds a 1-3 INF division and 2 x 2 CV (available Winter, 1940) for 18 BRPs.

The CHURCHILL DIRECTS political chit goes in the cup, but the chit drawn is US OIL EMBARGO. Japan immediately loses 10 BRPs and will lose another 25 BRPs next Spring Production Segment if she hasn’t gone to war with the US by then. Japanese War with the United States status goes up to 5 (she can now declare war on the US if she wishes).

Both Chinese factions and the US purchase one impulse chit each, and Japan purchases two. The Soviet Union and Britain purchase none (Japan can’t declare war on the USSR at her current entry level, and Britain can’t redeploy any of her units until her extra SURF factors arrive in the Pacific later this year).

Sea Zone Box Placement Segment: Britain spends 5 BRPs to send TAC, SUB and SURF units out on their normal patrol routes around Southeast Asia. Nobody else places any units in sea zone boxes.

Declaration of War and Sea Control and Raiding Segments: Nobody declares war, and no sea zones are contested.

Strategic Redeployment Segment: Nationalist China SRs a 2-2 INF unit out of Kweilin to fill the gap in the line north of the Japanese force on the south Chinese coast. Mao keeps his armies in place, and the Soviet Union sends 4 BRPs to him (2 get through). Britain SRs a 2 SUB unit from Colombo and a 1-4 TAC unit from Brisbane, all to Rabaul in the Solomon Islands. The USA SRs a 3-4 INF unit from the US West Coast box to Hilo, Hawaii along with the 9 SURF unit that transported it and then sends 2 BRPs to Nationalist China (one gets through). Japan SRs a 1-0 GAR unit north to reinforce Japanese lines against Mao’s armies and SRs a 1-5 ARM division from Japan to Hainan island off the south Chinese coast.

Operations Segment: The first chit drawn is…

NATIONALIST CHINA ATTRITION: The Kuomintang catch a lucky break and get the jump on the Japanese. They move their newly-built forces south to fill-in the front line as best they can, and they also form a secondary defensive line west of the objective city/provincial capital of Kweilin.

The next chit drawn is…

JAPAN ATTRITION: The relatively weak armies of the Japanese left-center “hit ‘em where they ain’t," going on the attack against the Kuomintang right-center just northeast of Kweilin. Air support from Changsha brings the attack up to 9 dice to 1, but neither side scores any hits!

COMMUNIST CHINA ATTRITION: Mao’s armies counterattack and hit the provincial capital at Hankow along with their new air support. The 5 die to 2 attack scores no hits on either side.

The next chit drawn is…

US NAVAL: An American 2 LC unit from Pearl Harbor takes a US 1-4 INF division down to Johnston Island and establishes a beachhead there. A 9 SURF unit goes there as well.

The last chit drawn is…

JAPANESE KWAN OFFENSIVE: Finally the Japanese spring offensive goes off. The Japanese armies on the south coast launch an 18 die to 3 line attack on two INF units on the far Kuomintang right flank. The initial attack scores just 3 hits but that’s enough to wipe-out the two Kuomintang armies, who score one hit before dying and kill a Japanese 1-3 Marine division (which is better used for amphibious assaults elsewhere anyway). The Japanese armies advance into the gap…

…and then the 3-5 ARM unit takes exploitation movement and moves northward, while a Japanese 1-3 airborne division in Canton flies four hexes north along with a 5-4 TAC unit to airdrop on the 2-2 Kuomintang army just southwest of Kweilin. The two Kuomintang 1-4 TAC units at Kweilin scramble to provide defensive air support, but one of them gets shot-down in air battle while doing no hits to the Japanese. The combined blitzkrieg/airborne assault goes off perfectly, scoring 6 hits on 9 dice and wiping-out the 2-2 army, but the Chinese score one hit before dying and wipe-out the airborne division. The ARM unit chooses not to advance, as that would leave it vulnerable to being cut-off from the rest of the Japanese army. But the Kuomintang right flank is now broken, and Kweilin is in danger. The Japanese roll a 1, and the US does not tighten the embargo, but the US entry status does go up to 5 because the Japanese used an HQ Offensive chit in China.

Supply and End Segments: All units are in supply, so units in sea zone boxes return home and play proceeds to…

TURN 4 – SUMMER, 1940
Production Segment: Nationalist China has just 4 BRPs left because she spent so much last turn to build the armies and took the brunt of the Japanese southern offensive. This means she can only build one 1-2 INF unit and still have 2 BRPs left over to buy an Attrition chit. The Netherlands will automatically become a British minor ally this turn and can therefore receive BRP transfers from Britain, so she builds the 1-4 TAC remaining in her force pool for 3 BRPs. Communist China conserves her BRPs and builds nothing, and the USA and Britain do the same. Japan rebuilds her 1-3 Marine and 1-3 Airborne divisions plus 4 SUB and also builds an airbase at the eastern beachhead on the south China coast, for a total of 17 BRPs. Finally, Japan and the US both receive a 4 CV unit, and Britain receives a 4 SURF unit (all built in Fall, 1939).

The TRIPARTITE PACT marker goes in the political cup, but the chit drawn is US STEEL EMBARGO. Japan loses another 10 BRPs and will now lose 45 BRPs next Spring production segment if she doesn’t go to war with the US first (something that looks increasingly inviting now). Japanese War with the US status goes up to 6.

Everyone buys their usual number of chits except for the US, who saves her BRPs in case things get hot later this year.

Sea Zone Box Placement Segment: The Netherlands spends her remaining BRP to put her new 1-4 TAC out on patrol in the Java Sea. Britain spends 5 BRPs for the usual patrols, but she keeps her 5 SURF unit in port so it can SR and join with the incoming 4 SURF from Britain in order to make a 9 SURF that can start transporting British units to forward positions next turn. Japan spends 2 BRPs to put a 2-4 TAC unit on patrol in the South China Sea.

Declaration of War and Sea Control and Raiding Segments: Nobody declares war, and no sea zones are contested.

Strategic Redeployment Segment: The Kuomintang SR a second 1-0 GAR unit into Kweilin to maximize the capital’s defenses. The Netherlands SRs her 2 SURF unit from Java to Taralan on Borneo so it can patrol the Sulu Sea next turn. Mao SRs a 2-2 INF unit from the north of his line toward the center to close-up a gap, and then the Soviet Union sends 4 BRPs to Mao (2 get through). Britain SRs her 4 SURF in the Britain box and her 5 SURF at Port Blair to Bombay to make a 9 SURF and then transfers 4 BRPs to the Netherlands. The US can still only transfer 2 BRPs per turn to Nationalist China and does so (one gets through), but she gets a total of three SRs at entry level 5 and SRs the US 6th Army HQ to the Philippines plus a 3-4 INF unit (bringing the Philippines up to its maximum US strength at entry level 5). Then Japan SRs a 5-4 TAC unit from Kaifeng in northern China to the new airbase on the south Chinese coast and does the same with the newly-rebuilt Airborne division. Then she SRs four LC units to rendezvous with Japanese INF, MAR, and ARM units in three different ports…

Operations Segment: The first chit drawn is…

NATIONALIST CHINA ATTRITION: The Kuomintang pull most of their units back a hex while moving their few reserves forward. They know that if the Japanese break their southern flank now, they’ll have nothing left to replace it with and will have to “swing the door” northwest to guard the approaches to Chunking.

The next chit drawn is…

COMMUNIST CHINA ATTRITION: Mao scoffs at Chiang Kai Shek and moves more forces south to attack Hankow. With air support, the attack is at 9 dice to 2 and it scores 3 hits, wiping-out the Japanese 2-3 army at Hankow and liberating the capital!!! But the Japanese defend the capital to the last man and roll boxcars, scoring 2 hits to wipe-out the stronger of Mao’s two armies that were to enter the capital and leaving the job to a 1-2 army instead.

The next chit drawn is…

JAPANESE ATTRITION: Mao’s victory at Hankow is extremely annoying to the Japanese who were planning on smashing through the weak Kuomintang center at the same time as their southern forces annihilated the Kuomintang right. But instead, they have to pull back, reform their lines, and then hit Hankow, which they attack at a strength of 8 dice to 1 (including air support) and retake with one hit. Thankful prayers go up to the memory of the brave defenders who wiped-out the 2-2 Chinese army that would have withstood the counterattack.

The last chit drawn is…

JAPANESE KWAN OFFENSIVE: Japanese armies surge northward and make a 22 to 6 die line attack against the entire Kuomintang right flank east of Kweilin. The attack scores 5 hits, wiping-out the four 1-2 armies holding most of the Kuomintang right. The Kuomintang 2-2 INF unit, holding the extreme right flank, voluntarily retreats north one hex to keep the last Kuomintang BRP from being eliminated. The routed Kuomintang armies only score one hit in return, which destroys a Japanese BRP, and the attacking armies advance north. Then the 3-5 ARM unit attacks the capital of Kweilin in exploitation combat at 3 dice to 3 (the Kuomintang 1-4 TAC unit there provides defensive air support). The Japanese score one hit, which destroys the last Kuomintang BRP, but both GAR units survive (it takes two hits to eliminate a 1-0 GAR), and the capital holds-out! The defenders score one hit and kill another Japanese BRP. The US entry level goes up by one again to 6, and Japan rolls a 2 meaning another US Embargo chit goes in the cup.

Supply Segment: All units are in supply, but the Japanese player voluntarily removes one of the two beachheads on the south Chinese coast (the one where the airbase was built this turn).

End Segment: All units at sea return to base.

So by mid 1940, Japan has nearly won her long-sought victory against the Kuomintang, and with the US entry level at 6, Chiang Kai Shek won’t be getting enough BRPs from them to even buy another Attrition chit this Fall. If the Japanese can wipe-out the Nationalist Chinese armies this year, they’ll have a lock on southern and western China, but there’s also a danger that Mao might pick up the pieces and grab some Kuomintang provinces to increase his own BRP base in the Spring. That, plus the force pool additions that the Soviets over the next couple of years, could just tempt the Soviet Union into entering the war before long, since they’d have a huge army of Communist Chinese cannon fodder with which to batter the Japanese. So the Japanese need to beat Mao to Chunking and establish defensive lines in the Kuomintang heartland to keep the Soviets out of the war.

Another issue is whether Japan should declare war on Britain next turn (something she was rather hoping to do since she’s got all her landing craft nicely positioned for multiple invasions). She would likely make huge gains against the British before the year is out, but it would cause the US entry level to shoot up to 9. That would let the US transfer more BRPs to Nationalist China, plus SR more units onto the map from the US West Coast box, and fortify the Philippines with more units. It would also give her a much higher BRP base in the spring, but of course, if Japan declares war on her before then, she’d get the maximum BRP base of 140 anyway. Said declaration of war would save Japan 45 BRPs in the spring since the embargos would be negated by full wartime production at home, but that would also give Japan a two-front war very early-on. But if the US declares war on Japan before the year is out, that will happen anyway, though she wouldn’t be able to do much this year since she has just 20 BRPs left right now.

What will the latter half of 1940 bring? Tune in next time and find out!

Play your own scenario. Pre-order Great Pacific War TODAY!